Some on social media are innundated with crime stories and videos, and flasely believe violent crime in America is surging.
It isn’t.
In fact, murders across the United States declined to their lowest point in about seventy years. This is an extreme shift from the sharp increase in murders beginning in 2020. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reports the overall U.S. murder rate for 2025 was 4.1 per 100,000 people.
Early 2026 data also shows murder rates continue to decrease, suggesting the downward trend is continuing.
In Baltimore, Maryland, this trend is even more clearly demonstrated. In 2025, there were 133 murders there – it’s lowest number since 1977. And during the first six months of 2026, murders decreased by 23 percent.
Baltimore has implemented two approaches to reduce violence: 1) law enforcement efforts directed toward specific individuals and groups through a targeted approach using the Group Violence Reduction Strategy, and 2) community-based prevention programs known as Safe Streets.
These programs use targeted interventions to concentrate funding on individuals who are most likely to become perpetrators or victims of violent crime and seek to prevent violent crimes from occurring by intervening in potentially lethal conflicts prior to them escalating into lethal events.
Also, advances in DNA and forensic technology, combined with the proliferation of surveillance cameras, doorbell cameras, license-plate readers and smartphones, have also contributed to the decline in murders. With fewer places to commit a violent crime without leaving behind physical or digital evidence, the increased likelihood of being identified and caught could be acting as a stronger deterrent.
So, the most likely explanation for the drop in homicides may ultimately involve several forces working together rather than one nationwide solution.
America’s homicide decline is occurring across cities with very different governments, police departments and crime-prevention strategies. If the trend continues, it could represent one of the most significant improvements in violent crime in decades. Understanding exactly why could be enormously important: if researchers decisively determine what’s driving the decline, cities may have a better chance of making historically low homicide rates last.
Why do some believe murders are increasing?
If you constantly hear about violent crime, past and present, and follow pages on social media that do nothing but post about violent crime, you’re likely to fall into the trap of thinking it’s happening all the time.
Moreover, if you’re over 40, you probably rememeber a time when, sans an extraordinary event, you only heard about violent crime that happened locally. But nowadays, thanks to the Internet and social media, we hear about violent crimes that happen hundreds and even thousands of miles away. As a result, it gives us a false sense of what’s going on. We hear about violent crime across the country but were previously used to hearing about just those violent crimes in our general vicinity.
