Former Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić insists that Europe’s accelerating military buildup could signal preparations for a devastating international conflict. But does rising defense spending mean another world war is approaching, or are nations trying to prevent one?
In an October 20, 2026 interview with Russian journalist Ksenia Sobchak, Vučić suggested that another world war may be increasingly difficult to avoid.
According to Novaya Gazeta Europe, he questioned why European governments are dramatically expanding their military capabilities and weapons production if they do not anticipate a serious confrontation.
Well, maybe Europe is ramping up because of Vladimir Putin’s threats to the rest of Europe and aggression in the region? Duh!
Vučić said that Germany’s increasing defense production, as well as rising military spending across Europe, were “a fire waiting to happen.” In this way he was using a version of a famous dramatic rule attributed to Anton Chekhov. This is the idea that if you put a gun into your story at the beginning of a scene, it will be used before the end of that same scene.
🇷🇸 Serbia’s President Vučić is warning that WORLD WAR III may be almost IMPOSSIBLE TO AVOID “It will be a miracle if it doesn’t begin. I would be the happiest man in the world if I were wrong. But I’m afraid I’m not wrong.” Not exactly the sort of thing you want to hear over your morning coffee. 🙈 Writer: Oliver https://t.co/xmplS0dmGb
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 20, 2026
According to NATO’s official announcement, the increase in military spending is part of an effort for all member nations to reach a goal established by NATO. The alliance agreed that each nation would spend 5 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on both military-related spending, and other security-related spending, by 2035. According to NATO, these measures will help to deter aggression from foreign adversaries such as Russia. Although some argue that greater military preparedness is a step toward war, others believe that simply preparing militarily does not equate to the intention to engage in conflict.
Hence, military preparations do not necessarily mean governments intend to start a war.
On October 20, The Guardian reported that NATO was increasing its military presence in the Black Sea following Russian attacks on commercial vessels near Ukrainian ports.
A direct confrontation between Russia and NATO could obviously have enormous consequences, especially because Russia, the United States, Britain, and France possess nuclear weapons.
An escalating conflict could also disrupt global energy markets, international trade, financial systems, and critical infrastructure.
The broader danger was examined in an October 17 Financial Times analysis, Are We Sleepwalking Into World War III?, which explored how rising geopolitical tensions and miscalculations could contribute to a larger international conflict.
The warning: Vučić fears that Europe’s expanding military arsenals could ultimately be used in a devastating war. But his prediction is not proof that World War III is inevitable. In fact, it may be pro-Putin propaganda. Keep in mind, President Vučić has repeatedly stated that Serbia would not impose sanctions on Moscow for Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine.
Opinion: While there’s a reason to be concerned about World War III, Vučić is lying it on a bit thick by saying only a miracle could prevent the current situation from happening. Serbia is a quasi ally of Putin and relies a lot on Russia’s natural gas and discounted energy deals so he could very well be incentivized.
Moreover, Serbian public sentiment is favorable toward Russia and President Vladimir Putin as the two nations share the Orthodox Christian faith and Slavic heritage. According to policy analyses by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a majority of Serbs view Russia as a key international friend and don’t have a favorable opinion of NATO.
